According to relevant sources, a large-scale aluminum inventories held by a US hedge fund may cause tight supply and lead to soaring aluminum prices, especially when the fund decided to increase its holdings. However, sources do not want to disclose the name of the fund.
According to these sources, there is an institution that has recently established enough warehouse warrants to monopolize the entire market and controls 50% to 80% of the aluminum stocks (registered warehouse receipts) in the LME's registered warehouse.
Kemp, a metals analyst at Sempra Metals, may be looking for high quality metal aluminum or wanting to control aluminum prices in the short term. However, supply will become very tight. He said that once supply is tight and demand remains stable, it may push aluminum prices back to the historical record set on May 11 this year, which is $3,310/tonne.
Currently, the three-month aluminum call option holding at 3,000 US dollars per ton is close to 10,000 lots. The knockdown price is higher than the current market price by US$150, which makes the debate on the short-term trend of aluminum price more fierce. Buying an option will give the holder a certain price to sell or buy a certain amount of futures contract.
Market participants also speculated that once the large-scale fund further expands its position, aluminum prices will turn a corner. Since May, many commodity trading advisors (CTAs) have been weighed down by aluminum prices due to oversupply, basically clearing long positions on the LME. At the same time LME 3-month aluminum also hovered below 2700 US dollars for a long time.
However, after the news was announced, aluminum was rapidly rising and once rose to 2,851 USD/ton on Tuesday, reaching the highest point in the past six months.
Since the beginning of this year, the increase in aluminum is only about 20%, while the increase in nickel has exceeded 150%, and the price of copper has also increased by about 60%. Analysts believe that the basic balance between supply and demand --- basically maintained at about 90,000 tons per day, is the reason for the aluminum price increase is not.
Liu Zhongyuan, deputy general manager of Dongyin Futures, said that it is not surprising that the LME aluminum market has been manipulated. In 1988, the then US energy giant, Philip Brothers, had a large amount of short-lived aluminum in the LME, amounting to more than 1 million tons. But the crickets were caught and the yellow tits were behind. The fund could not be delivered when Philip Brothers Co., Ltd. shortly expired, and it bought a large number of squeeze positions. For a time, the price of three-month aluminum has risen to more than 3,000 US dollars, and the spot price has soared to more than 3,500 US dollars / ton. In the end, Philip Brothers was forced to close out over $3,400 and lose hundreds of millions of dollars. And just after the Philip brothers were squeezed out of the market, Lon-Aluminum began to vent all the way, and returned to 1400 US dollars at the end of 1989.
In the first half of 2003, the international spot supply was sufficient and demand was sluggish, and production continued to increase. In July, LME stocks reached more than 1.3 million tons. However, under the control of a “big family” in the West, LME aluminum spot has long been in a state of premium, up to more than 60 US dollars. It is said that the trader had mastered 1.5-2.0 million tons of bulls at the time. In August 2003, LME began to intervene in the investigation and found that although there may be some kind of collusion manipulation and improper behavior, the LME handed over the case to the UK Financial Services Bureau because of non-members' violations. After more than a year of investigation, the Financial Services Authority of the United Kingdom announced in January 2005 that it would no longer take further action. The statement stated that "Given the current evidence, the Financial Services Authority ended its investigation and decided not to pursue the matter."
It is not yet known whether management will take action on the possible manipulation of funds this time.

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