This week, southern China will face cold air and southern regions will experience cooling weather. At the same time, the Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway, a major artery for coal transportation, will be inspected for 12 to 15 days. The CCA Group's accident shutdown will affect coal supply. The triple factor ignited coal prices. In this regard, senior coal experts predicted to reporters that the coal season will be put in place ahead of schedule and coal prices may set a new high this year.

The south suddenly drops the temperature of coal winter storage or ahead of schedule "As far as I know, the current power plant is increasing coal storage, and the coal price is very likely to rise further, even creating a new high this year." Senior coal expert Li Chaolin told reporters that the recent cooling in parts of the south It will definitely increase the demand for coal further.

The reporter learned that with the continuous cooling of the cold air from the south, from September 18 onwards, temperatures in most parts of southern China have fallen sharply, and cumulative losses in Sichuan, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Guangxi have exceeded 10°C. About 16 °C.

The reporter also learned that in order to ensure normal heating in winter, the heating and power companies in Shandong, Shaanxi, and other places have also taken action in advance, actively coordinated coal supply, and began to store coal in advance in winter. Among them, Huadian Shaanxi Company recently held a special working conference on coal storage in winter, demanding advanced decision-making and taking the initiative to ensure stable and reliable supply of thermal coal reserves in winter.

In this regard, relevant experts of Shanxi Coal Trading Center pointed out that in August, the southern region was generally hot, the supply and demand of thermal coal market was booming, and the prices of pits in major areas such as Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi increased slightly.

“In September, thermal coal entered the traditional off-season, but the southern part of the country experienced a shortage of power coal, and the number of coal deposit days fell quickly. The demand for power plants to make up stocks pushed the price of coal to rise against the trend.” The above experts pointed out that Two major factors, coal recovery in electric power and winter coal storage in advance, exacerbated the tight winter coal demand. For the tight Central China and East China regions, coal supply in winter is less than a few percent, which also leads to the maintenance of thermal coal prices. High position.

The purchase price of key power plants in eastern China rose again. In fact, the reporter learned from the coal resources network that the purchase price of thermal coal in key power plants in East China began to rise in mid-September after stabilizing in early September.

According to the price data released on September 20th, Datong coal purchase price of the three power plants at Shanghai Shidongkou Second Plant, Nantong Huaneng, and Taicang Huaneng Power Plant along the East China River Power Plant has generally risen by RMB 5/ton, and the heat output is 5000 kcal and 5500 kcal. The acceptance price of Datong Coal at 5,800 kcal was 775 yuan/ton, 875 yuan/ton and 915 yuan/ton respectively.

In addition, the procurement price of Mongolian coal for the East China Jiangyin Xiagang Power Plant and the Yangzhou No. 2 Power Plant rose by 5 yuan/ton from the previous month, the receiving price for the 5,000 calorie-caloric Menglian coal was 780 yuan/ton, and the price for the 5,500 caloric-burning Mongolian coal was 880. Yuan / ton.

In addition, Shanghai Shidongkou No. 1 Plant and Tianshenggang Power Plant lean lean coal purchase price rose by 10-15 yuan from the previous month. The 5000 kilocalorie calorie-reduced lean coal price was 750 yuan/ton, which was a 15 yuan increase over the previous year; 5,500 yuan. Card calorie-poor lean coal price was 790 yuan / ton, compared with the previous price increase of 10 yuan.

“The purchase price of thermal coal in key power plants in East China is affected by factors such as the maintenance of the Daqin Line and the winter storage of downstream companies. It has also shown that the current coastal coal market has gradually shifted to the seller’s market,” said Wang Xufeng, a coal resources network.

In addition to the traditional peak season for entering coal (especially coal), the Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway has begun a 12-15 day overhaul for Daqin Railway, and CCG's suspension of production due to accidents has affected coal supply. It also supports the entire coal market.

Among them, the Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway began a 12-day “open skylight” inspection starting on the 21st, and the railway department decided to suspend construction from 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. daily. During the maintenance period, it is expected that the Daqin Line will reduce 300,000 tons of coal per day, affecting approximately 220,000 tons of coal entering the port.

“Daiqin Line’s routine maintenance is generally conducted twice a year. The overhaul in the first half of this year was carried out on April 1-30 this year. The one-month, three-hour daily power outage caused a 28% reduction in the number of daily vehicles. Qinhuangdao The inventory of Hong Kong stocks was reduced from 7.2 million tons to 5 million tons before maintenance, a drop of 25%.” Industry insiders said that this will directly affect the supply of coal.

In addition, “China Coal accident affects the national monthly coal supply of 3%, and the expected duration is about 1 month (which may be longer).” The Huatai Joint Analysis Report analyzes that this is a more-than-expected influencing factor for the coal market. In the Zhoushan Coal Mining Group in Shanxi Province in the week, the impact of the “9.16” flooding in the Shanxi Jinhai Yuanbaowan Coal Mine was decided by the Shanxi Provincial Government. The Shanxi Provincial Government recently decided that all wells in the Shanxi Coal Group will stop production and rectification, and that the company will resume production after inspection and acceptance.

Moreover, Huatai United Securities analysts believe that if the growth rate of industrial electricity consumption does not drop sharply in the future, this winter will again have a large area of ​​power shortage, and then will increase the price, including "Central Henan, Shanxi, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Guizhou The price of electricity is likely to be raised."

The latest research report of Huatai United Securities also commented on the reform of the resource tax. “Since local governments proceed from their own interests, they will continue to raise industry barriers, increase integration, and increase industrial concentration in order to gain greater control over coal prices. Therefore, we believe that even if the future coal resource tax is changed to ad valorem, coal companies still have a strong ability to pass on it."