The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development” has been submitted to the State Council for approval. Among them, the total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation has been explicitly raised to 10 GW, which has doubled the target in the first draft of the plan.

“At present, the cost of components for some major domestic manufacturers has already dropped to 1 US$/W, and the electricity price is 1 yuan/kWh, which will become the cornerstone of the large-scale start-up of the domestic market.” June 3rd, LDK According to an analysis by one source, the increase in the installed capacity of photovoltaics was driven by both energy-saving and emission-reduction policies, and also contributed to the decline in the overall cost of the photovoltaic industry.

It is worth noting that in 2010, China's photovoltaic cell production reached 8,000 megawatts, accounting for about half of the world's total production, ranking first in the world. In contrast, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation market is only about 380 MW, accounting for 3% of the total installed capacity in the world. As a result, more than 95% of PV module products are exported to overseas markets.

“The installed capacity of photovoltaics in Germany last year reached 7.25 GW, plus the installed capacity in 2009, reaching 11.15 GW in two years. China’s geographical area and market capacity are so large. I think if the Central Government has the determination, it should be able to do so.” Zhang Jibing, manager of CSI Artis Market, also told this reporter.

The Ministry of Finance recently stated that China will actively use financial subsidies to promote the “Golden Sun” demonstration project and strive to adopt a domestic photovoltaic power generation scale of not less than 1,000 megawatts per year since 2013 to accelerate the development of the domestic photovoltaic power generation industry.

A person in charge of the State Electricity Regulatory Commission confirmed that in the current year and next year, China is expected to increase the renewable energy price from 4% per kilowatt hour to 6%, and to 1 cent after 2015, which will strongly support the PV represents the development of new energy industries.

A senior manager of a photovoltaic company in central China stated that the third batch of photovoltaic power plant concession tenders this year is about 500MW, and “Golden Sun” is not less than 200MW last year. With local investment projects, the installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic power plants is at least 800MW this year. "But we think that this year's installation capacity will exceed 1GW."

According to the aforementioned LDK LDK source, taking into account factors such as environmental protection and rising electricity prices, when the cost of photovoltaic power generation drops to 1 yuan/kWh, it can compete with conventional energy sources. At present, the nation's policy-driven efforts and the efforts to reduce costs as a whole in the photovoltaic industry have enabled the domestic market to start up and will form a pattern of common growth in both the domestic and foreign markets, which is more conducive to the healthy growth of the photovoltaic industry.

“Although the current PV price is still higher than conventional energy, if we consider the social and environmental costs, its benefits are much higher than conventional energy.” Wang Xinghua, chairman of Zhongsheng Optoelectronics, told reporters that Germany and Spain encourage private use of solar energy, and give more impressive The subsidy allows it to have a return rate of more than 10%, similar to investment products, and this aspect has developed the photovoltaic industry, on the other hand it has also protected the environment.

Policy support is crucial for the development of the photovoltaic industry. As the world's largest photovoltaic installation country, Germany made it clear at the end of May that it will shut down all nuclear power plants in 2022, which in 2009 contributed 26% of Germany's power generation. In the next decade, Germany plans to increase the share of new energy in total demand from the current 17% to nearly 50%, and will invest 200 billion euros in 2020 to develop wind power and solar energy.

According to the prediction of the European Photovoltaic Association, in 2011, the global installed photovoltaic capacity will reach 21.145 GW, which is an increase of 27% from 2010, and it will increase significantly to 100 GW in 2013.

The executives of the above-mentioned central photovoltaic company stated that it is still difficult to judge whether more countries will follow Germany’s reduction or even stop using nuclear power, but similar plans have been suspended or put on hold in Switzerland and Italy. More importantly, China's photovoltaic industry has formed a complete industrial chain and has been fighting for many years in the international market. It has both cost, technical advantages, and the experience of grasping global rules. “The next 10 years will be the gold of the domestic photovoltaic industry. 10 years".

However, when the industry cheered, there was no lack of rational voices. An executive from a large domestic polysilicon company stated that the effect of 10GW of installed capacity on photovoltaics cannot be equated with conventional power such as thermal power.

For example, the executive said that the number of hours of nuclear power generation is 7700 hours, and the number of hours of thermal power utilization is about 6,000 hours. "And nuclear power and thermal power are all generated for 24 hours. Photovoltaics can only be used during the day, and the highest photoelectric conversion rate is currently achieved. 17%." In his view, by 2020, thermal power will still dominate, accounting for about 60% of domestic installed capacity.