In the short term after Japan’s earthquake, the supply and demand of cement and steel building materials will reverse, and with the reconstruction work after the disaster, China’s building materials companies should play a greater role.

On the 21st, a number of cement industry sources judged that the supply and demand curve of cement in Japan will be reversed after the disaster, changing the situation in which production has been declining since 1996, and supply exceeds demand. In addition, due to the impact on electricity supply in Japan, iron and steel companies are forced to stop production, and there will be gaps in the future steel supply.

According to statistics, in 2010, there were 18 cement companies in Japan with a total cement production capacity of 61.477 million tons. Before the earthquake, Japan was a net exporter of cement. In 2009, Japan exported about 10 million tons of cement and clinker. According to the analysis, with reference to the increase in cement demand at the start of post-disaster reconstruction in Sichuan Province in 2009, the demand for cement increased by 46%, assuming that the demand for cement in Japan after the disaster increased by 40%. According to Japan’s cement production capacity of 61.47 million tons in 2010, it is found that the cement supply gap in Japan is about 10 million tons this year and next.

Furthermore, it is reported that five Japanese steel companies including Nippon Steel, JFE, Sumitomo Metal, Tokyo Steel, and Kobe Steel suffered various degrees of damage after the earthquake, and various steel manufacturers were forced to suspend production. As a big steel country, it can also provide considerable support.

Industry sources pointed out that the cement demand brought by the earthquake in Japan can not only be filled by domestic cement companies, but also improve the cement export environment throughout Southeast Asia. In particular, domestic cement companies with relatively more export channels will benefit.

The same effect is still in the steel industry. According to analysis by industry insiders, the Japan earthquake caused the closure of approximately 11.5 million tons of steel production capacity. Japan is the world’s largest steel exporter. Last year, it exported 42.4 million tons of steel, accounting for 44.7% of the annual production, of which 83%-85. % of steel exports to Asia. "If calculated by 10% of the export capacity, the earthquake in Japan will have a supply gap of more than 4 million tons of steel in the world, and at least 3.5 million tons in Asia will need to be filled," said analysts.

However, people in the industry also pointed out that the Japanese steel industry mainly focuses on high-end steel production (such as high-end car plates, high-end cold-rolled strips, galvanized steel strips, electrical steel, etc.). The direct impact of the earthquake is also Japan's high value-added steel products. The export, in this regard, China's steel companies can not only fill the gap, but it is also a challenge.