China's PMI continuous decline in March, imported inflation can not be ignored

According to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) on the 1st, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell by 0.7 percentage points to 52.2% in February from the previous month, and fell for the third consecutive month. Analysts pointed out that the fall in PMI shows that the tightening policy is beginning to bear fruit, and economic growth is evolving toward the expected direction of regulation and control, which will help alleviate the current high inflation expectations. However, it is worth noting that the current purchase price index remains high, suggesting that imported inflationary pressures cannot be ignored. Economic growth is still stable and moderate CFLP data show that the PMI in February was 52.2%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the decline was significantly smaller than last month. Although the chain fell back, it still rose 0.2 percentage points over the same period last year. Although the fall in PMI reflects the slowdown or slowdown in economic growth, experts say that there is no need to worry too much about economic growth. It is a good thing to fall down properly. Earlier, HSBC also announced that China's February PMI final value fell to 51.7%, a seven-month low, but also lower than the long-term average. Although the manufacturing economy continued to improve, the growth rate slowed down noticeably. Cai Jin, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, pointed out that although the PMI has declined, the data shows that the current economic growth is still in a stable and moderate growth range. According to Zhu Jianfang, chief macro analyst at CITIC Securities (14.74, 0.03, 0.20%), the February PMI callback was the result of a combination of policy tightening and seasonal factors. “The fall in PMI shows that the macro tightening regulation policy is effective, which helps to alleviate the market's concerns about inflation.” CFLP special analyst Zhang Liqun also pointed out that the PMI index has fallen for three consecutive months, indicating that the possibility of the economy continuing to fall is increasing. However, the PMI index is still above 50%, indicating that the economic downturn will not be large. Chang Jian, an analyst at Barclays Capital China, predicts that China’s real GDP growth in the first quarter of this year will still be higher than 9.5%. Judging from the sub-indices, the overall situation continued to decline, but the decline was significantly reduced. Compared with the previous month, the new export order index, backlog order index, import index, purchase price index increased slightly, within 1 percentage point; the other indexes fell, including production index, finished goods inventory index, raw material inventory index, The purchasing volume index fell by a large margin, exceeding 1 percentage point. In particular, the purchasing volume index and the raw material inventory index fell most obviously, with a drop of more than 2 percentage points. Input-type inflationary pressures increased CFLP data showed that in February, the purchase price index was 70.1%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. Mainly for raw materials and energy, intermediate goods and manufactured goods, the purchase price index is higher (all above 70%), while the consumer goods category purchase price index is still above 60%, which indicates that costs push up inflation pressure Still bigger. Soochow Securities analyst Huang Lin said in an interview with reporters: "The rise in raw materials and energy prices is mainly due to imported inflation, while high oil prices and accelerated global economic recovery lead to high commodity prices, which may push inflationary pressures to continue. Increased.” On Monday, Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, also said that the inflationary pressures facing China this year, especially imported inflation, will be greater than last year. However, he also pointed out that there will be no hyperinflation this year, because the current domestic grain and major agricultural products (18.64, -0.10, -0.53%) are relatively abundant, and the supply and demand pattern of industrial products is basically stable. .  

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