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The “12th Five-Year Plan for Natural Gas†issued by the National Development and Reform Commission in 2012 predicts that by 2015 China’s natural gas consumption will reach 230 billion cubic meters.
In fact, China's natural gas consumption growth rate has slowed sharply since 2014. According to the calculation of China Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute, China's natural gas consumption in 2015 was about 187.3 billion cubic meters, an increase of 3.9% year-on-year, far lower than the target set in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†of natural gas, and the growth rate reached an all-time low. This year, the trend of slowing down this growth is still going on.
Zhao Zhongxun, deputy general manager of the planning department of China National Petroleum Corporation, said that domestic gas consumption in the first three years of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†maintained a double-digit high growth, but with the sharp drop in international oil prices and the slowdown in domestic economic growth, natural gas consumption The growth rate fell back to parity in 2014 and 2015 and continued to slow down.
"Since the century, China's natural gas consumption has maintained a high growth trend, and the market is in short supply, so that many areas where natural gas can be used have not been fully developed. After 2014, energy prices such as oil and coal have fallen sharply, and the use of natural gas has been reduced. Competitive advantage," he said.
With the substantial reduction in the economic advantages of natural gas, some areas have even experienced the phenomenon of “reverse substitution†of gas-to-oil and gas-to-coal. “Some industrial enterprises that used liquefied natural gas (LNG) have gradually changed to liquefied petroleum gas. These companies have been hard-working for years,†said Liu Yijun, a professor at China University of Petroleum.
After China's natural gas industrial chain entered a stage of rapid development in 2004, natural gas consumption increased rapidly. In order to solve the shortage of natural gas, the three major oil companies signed a number of LNG and pipeline gas import contracts under the high oil price environment.
According to the report of China Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute, in 2015, due to the sharp drop in international oil prices, China's imported natural gas prices generally fell by about 20%. However, after the state reduced the price of non-residential gas trains by 0.7 yuan/cubic meter in November 2015, the cost of imported gas was still higher than the sales price of the gate station after price adjustment.
"In the case of shrinking market demand as a whole, it is difficult for oil companies to dilute the excessive import cost of the previous period by increasing the import of natural gas." Liu Yijun said that the development and utilization of unconventional resources such as shale gas and deep sea gas in China are also turning to technology. Reserves dominated and slowed down the pace of commercialization.
It is understood that with the successive use of a batch of LNG receiving station projects, the utilization efficiency of LNG receiving stations in China is reduced, and the problem of excess receiving capacity appears.
Zhao Zhongxun believes that for China, the clean energy of natural gas still has a good market potential. “How to develop next depends on whether the government can introduce support policies for natural gas utilization.†He said, for example, in some areas with small environmental capacity, the use of natural gas will be increased, and the peaking effect of natural gas power generation on wind power and photovoltaic power generation will be fully utilized. .
Low oil prices are both an opportunity and a challenge for the reform of the natural gas industry. Zhang Yuqing, deputy director of the National Energy Administration, said earlier that the fall in gas prices provided a good opportunity for China to develop the natural gas market. An important area for the future development of the natural gas market is power generation. However, domestic gas prices are still high, which makes natural gas power generation still limited relative to alternative energy development. “How big is China’s natural gas market is a problem that needs to be studied seriously.â€
Several opinions and supporting policies for deepening the reform of the oil and gas system are expected to be introduced this year. During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, how to develop China's natural gas industry undoubtedly needs to be promoted by the overall reform.
Liu Yijun said that as China's natural gas market enters the supply easing period as a whole, major domestic oil companies are constrained by cash flow, and will have more incentives to optimize their assets, which provides an opportunity to accelerate the reform of the natural gas industry chain structure. At the same time, however, the market expectations of low gas prices and low-speed growth have made the new market entities enter the industrial chain with insufficient upstream power; the decline in infrastructure construction investment has also accelerated the implementation of the “separation of net transportation†in the middle chain of the industrial chain. .
Experts pointed out that overall, the proportion of natural gas in China's primary energy consumption should be further increased, and the use of natural gas in distributed energy and transportation should be increased. At the same time, we should further accelerate the pace of market-oriented reform of natural gas prices, introduce peaking gas prices, attract more capital to enter the construction of gas storage and other infrastructure, and promote the sustainable development of the natural gas industry.
Consumption growth has slowed significantly. Where does the natural gas industry go?
In the late "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China's natural gas consumption continued to decline sharply after continuing the double-digit growth in the previous years. What will this bring to the fast-growing natural gas industry chain? How to digest the long-term imported natural gas signed during the high oil price period?
In the late "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China's natural gas consumption continued to decline sharply after continuing the double-digit high growth in previous years. What will this bring to the fast-growing natural gas industry chain? How to digest the long-term imported natural gas that was signed during the high oil price period? The 13th Five-Year Plan of China's natural gas industry policy will be adjusted. The reporter recently interviewed relevant people.